The intrinsic value of black walnut has been thoroughly tested by time. For centuries it’s been one of the most desirable woods in the world. Its enduring appeal rests solidly on its innate beauty, richness and purity.
While there’s no way to accurately predict prices 25 to 35 years down the road when the trees are to be harvested, it is helpful to understand the market forces that create those prices. However, prices paid for black walnut (and other hardwoods) are not easy to come by. Deals made between the seller and buyer are private and seldom publicized. When the prices are made public, their accuracy is sometimes suspect. Buyers are reluctant to reveal how much they pay because doing so tends to increase the expectations of future sellers.
Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence collected from various industry sources allows us to feel confident of our findings.
Prices for veneer-grade black walnut reached their peak in the late 1980s. Since then, the supply of such logs has become so scarce that demand has moderated.
When the supply of a particular raw material or component falls below what marketers call, “critical mass,” manufacturers switch to alternative materials. “Critical mass” is defined as the amount of a raw material needed to maintain a product line offering. Thus, when the supply of black walnut became problematic in the early 1990s, veneer mills and paneling and furniture manufacturers began substituting black walnut with other woods. At the same time they altered their marketing and promotion to support products made of these other woods, stating that black walnut was no longer fashionable. The fact is that, irrespective of price and availability, black walnut has an enduring spot as one of the four most sought-after woods in the world, the others being mahogany, teak and cherry.
Because mahogany and teak are currently subject to an informal moratorium on harvesting trees in tropical rain forests, the future for black walnut looks exceptionally bright.
